The following articles by Stratelytics principals can be downloaded or viewed by clicking on the title.
E-Mobility and Rate Design by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison argues that current rates are both inefficient and discourage electrification of the transportation system. If we are to meet even modest Greenhouse Gas goals, electric utilities need to act boldly on rates.
Grid Battery Storage by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison discusses how prominent companies use real options based strategies to guide investments. This approach can be particularly useful when technologies and their economics are changing rapidly.
Rate Design Is the New IRP by Dr. Borison argues that the traditional, minimum resource cost approach to Integrated Resource Planing is not broad enough for today’s utilities. Customer demand and resource supply must be planned simultaneously in today’s distributed and competitive market.
Black Swan or Black Sheep? by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison suggests that BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling rig disaster was not an extraordinary and unpredictable event, but the outcome of a faulty risk management philosophy. (Risk Management, April 2011, 58(3): 48-53)
A Practical Application of Real Options Under the Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission by Dr. Hamm, Dr. Borison, Mr. Philip Narodick, and Ms. Ann Whitfield describes how real options can be successfully applied in a regulated industry. This paper was prepared on behalf of Grid Australia in 2011.
How to Manage Risk (After the Risk Management Has Failed) by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison describes how the predominant “frequentist” approach to risk analysis can miss the biggest risks and lead the most distinguished companies into disaster. It suggests that a “Bayesian” approach incorporating judgments may provide more accurate assessments of risk. (MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2010, 52(1): 51-57)
Prediction Markets: A New Tool for Strategic Decision-Making by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison explains what prediction markets area and discusses their potential use in quantifying uncertainty and supporting decision making. (California Management Review, 2010; 52(4): 125-141)
The Rush to Coal: Is the Analysis Complete? by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison examines the logic behind the roughly 100MW of new coal power plants that were under development in the United States in 2008, and points out why that logic may have been faulty. (The Electricity Journal, Jan-Feb 2008, 21(1): 31-37)
“Dirty, Old” Coal Plants: Silk Purse or Sow’s Ear by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison describes how rethinking the debate over “dirty, old” coal plants can be beneficial both economically and environmentally. (The Electricity Journal, April 2007, 20(3): 30-36)
Forecasting Long Run Electricity Prices by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison describes how to develop more accurate electricity price forecasts for applications in long-term resource planning and risk management. (The Electricity Journal, August-September 2006, 19(7): 47-57)
Better Power Contracts: Using Flexibility to Increase Value by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Adam Borison describes how creative design and rigorous analysis of power contract “options” can significantly increase return and reduce risk. (The Electricity Journal, December 2005, 18(10): 62-69)
Managing Uncertainty by Dr. Hamm and Dr. Borison discusses the implications of uncertainty in the electric power industry for building managers and emphasizes the need for options thinking. (Energy Decisions, October 2001, 4(10): 6-11)