EV’s in Small Island Developing States

Many factors influence the choice between electricity and gasoline as the energy source for a new car.  However common sense and virtually all electric vehicle experts agree that the relative price of these fuels is an important influence on the choice.  I’ve recently worked on energy issues in Haiti and become interested in the particular challenges of energy supply on islands. Most islands have high fuel imports and high energy prices.  Often diesel or other forms of petroleum are the main fuels for energy generation. Are islands good targets for vehicle electrification?

As a baseline, I look at the US and California, in 2018 electric vehicles claimed 2.1% of the US light vehicle market.  Somewhat behind Europe (EU plus Norway and Switzerland) with 2.5% and far behind world leader Norway with 49.1%. California leads US states with 7.8% EV market share.  (See Electric car use by country) The following table shows current gasoline/electric price ratios for USA, California, and Norway. All data from fall of 2019. (See California electric price and Global Petrol Prices for other data.)

Destine Gay, Tom Rogers, and Rebekah Shirley published a paper examining the suitability of small island states for electric vehicles.  (See Small island developing states and EV.) They list 22 small island states with the cost of gasoline and cost of electricity in each.  The average ratio of gasoline/electricity is 5.3 and the median is 3.8. The ratio is at or over 5 in 9 of these states.

Unfortunately the report did not describe how the sample was chosen or the years for the data.  I created my own sample for comparison. The UN has a set of 58 independent entities that they have recognized as Small Island Developing States (SIDS) (See SIDS list.)  I chose a random sample of 10 of these states and found the gasoline and electricity prices.  In most cases, I found data from the fall of 2019. In a few cases, I had to go back as far as 2016, but in all cases both the gasoline and electric prices are from the same year. (Most prices are from  Global Petrol Prices).  In my  sample, the average ratio is 13.1 and the median is 4.8.  The average is significantly distorted by Cuba which has a ratio of 70.  5 states have a ratio over 5.

This suggests that small developing islands do not have exceptionally good or bad fundamental fuel economics for EV’s.  Certainly, there is a sizable subset with very good fundamental economics at this time. Also, assuming that small developing islands have better than average wind and solar resources, more of them should be developing positive EV economics.  Because EV’s are not obvious winners, if you want to promote EV use in SIDS, it is important to get the rates right. By incenting smart charging the economics of EV’s can improve substantially while not placing a burden on non-EV customers.